3 factors in why George Pickens was unlikely to fetch a 3rd Round comp pick in 2027
When the Pittsburgh Steelers traded George Pickens this week, there were many that were disappointed in the return. With the Steelers gaining a third-round pick in the 2026 draft, and moving forward one round from the sixth to the fifth round in 2027, there were many Steelers fans who felt it would have been better to keep Pickens for the season and simply get a third-round compensatory pick the following year. Although this sounds good in theory, it’s not necessarily the reality of this situation.
On the most recent episode of the Pittsburgh Standard Time podcast, I broke down the flaws in the compensatory hypothesis for the Steelers to simply regain the pick one year later. They were three main factors as to why a third round compensatory pick for George Pickens would be difficult to obtain.
1- The Contract
First, George Pickens would have to sign a contract that would bring in a third-round compensatory pick. For him to even have the possibility, he would have to pull in at minimum $20 million average per year (APY). Even doing so would still not guarantee him to land in the third round as will be explained to the next section. To give an example, even though they are not compensatory free agents (CFAs) from the 2025 offseason, two wide receivers who signed a new deals tecently and have more than a $20 million APY and are not currently projected in the third round according to OverTheCap.com (OTC). Both Chris Godwin ($22 million) and Stefon Diggs ($21.167 million) are currently projected in the fourth round tier. To be safely in the third round, Pickens would likely have to draw at least a $23 million APY contract next offseason. With how things were progressing in Pittsburgh, would Pickens be able to sign for this much? It’s anything but a sure bet.
2- The Snap Count
So why can a player like Dan Moore Jr. with a $20.5 million APY land as a third-round pick and someone like Chris Godwin at $22 million APY is projected in the fourth round? That all comes down to projected snap counts. Being a wide receiver, most aren’t projected to play more than 75% of the offensive snaps in a season. Last year, although it was because he missed three games, Pickens played 69% of the Steelers offensive snaps. The season before Pickens did reach 87% of the snaps, which is a very high mark for a wide receiver. But whether or not he would do so with a new team in 2026 is tough to estimate. This is why players such as quarterbacks, offensive linemen, and top-tier players in the secondary are easier to land a higher compensatory draft pick because they play such a high percentage of snaps.
3- Buyers vs. Sellers
What may be the biggest factor beyond the first two and where George Pickens would have potentially landed in the compensatory formula had he been kept by the Steelers and allowed to leave after the 2025 season is whether or not the Steelers would have a net loss in compensatory free agents. When it comes to 2026 free agency, are the Steelers going to be buyers or sellers? In 2025, the Steelers had a number of players they were ready to move on from and decided to work the compensatory system in their favor. In 2026, are they willing to make the same sacrifices? Or would the Steelers be better off adding talent in free agency and not trying to save for a compensatory draft pick? The only way a team gains the pick is if more players are lost than gained, regardless of what round they fall. Next offseason could very well be shaping up for the Steelers to make sure they have gains.
If the Steelers were looking at having plenty of other players on expiring contracts move on next offseason, it would make the system easier to work to their advantage. If the Steelers don’t work out a long-term deal with T.J. Watt and he leaves for another team, chances are they would be working that compensatory formula. But other than Watt, the next largest salary that the Steelers could lose next offseason would be Isaac Seumalo. In fact, the top three contracts the Steelers have of players who are on the last year of their deals at this time are all players over 30. When looking at players that are on the last year of their rookie deals, the Steelers have already traded away Kenny Pickett and players such as DeMarvin Leal and Calvin Austin aren’t likely ones who look to be highly coveted on the free agent market next year at this time.
Whether or not the Steelers would be in line to pick up more draft picks because of these players is a decision they are probably not ready to make at this time. Therefore, banking on wanting to work the system to gain a pick for George Pickens not really something they wanted to decide now.
For more about how the Steelers trade of George Pickens affects their wide receiver room, check out the latest episode of Pittsburgh Standard Time below:
So Pgh took the best route they could right now, FWIW. Alan Saunders felt GP might have been in line for $24-28MM APY, though he provided no insight into the importance of snap count to the compensatory formula. FFSN < SteelersNow
I wanted to keep Pickens mostly because I wanted his production in 25, but also he’s great value on a rookie deal. I felt that his leaving in 26 free agency could net a three and that was reason enough not to trade him for less. I understand the downside of this scenario is said pick would not be realized in 26, but the upside is what two very good WR’s does for the rest of the offense – personality be damned.
I fully expect Pickens to land a deal north of 25M so the per year salary bar does not seem too high a hurdle to get over at all. The rest of the compensatory domino’s falling into place is a risk, but I still feel his production, and threat on the field with Metcalf was worth keeping him.
Certainly yes, JoeB. Whole thing hurts Pgh and the Steelers short-term and in multiple ways. I’d much rathered GP stayed in Pgh, too. Unfortunate is a word that doesn’t quite reflect the degree of ill-effect the circumstances of this trade can and will have. GP could still get a salary commensurate with his talent, Pgh gets Dallas’ ’26 3rd. Damn shame that all people involved created a situation leading to this outcome. Just reminds me of Roy Jefferson and Noll, though those circumstances were different back then.