30 Scenarios in 30 Days: Jaylen Warren will lead the Steelers in rushing
The Pittsburgh Steelers are preparing for the 2025 regular season, but before the real games begin, the team has to head to training camp back at Saint Vincent College in order to fine tune their skills. As we here at SCN prepare you for the start of camp, we give you a series called “30 Scenarios in 30 Days” which gives you a Steelers scenario every day leading up to the start of camp.
It is simple how it works. We provide you the scenario, reasons why it will or won’t happen, and then our prediction for what we think will take place.
Let’s get to the scenario…
Scenario: Jaylen Warren will lead the Steelers in rushing
Why it will happen: When the Pittsburgh Steelers drafted Kaleb Johnson in the 3rd Round of the 2025 NLF Draft, many assumed he would eventually take over as the starting running back for the black-and-gold. While he might eventually get the bulk of the carries, it doesn’t necessarily mean he will be leading the Steelers in rushing.
When I consider the Steelers running attack, I still think Warren, not Johnson, will be the leading rusher at season’s end.
Last season Warren had the following stat line:
120 Carries
511 Yards
4.3 average
1 Touchdown
Warren was able to get 511 yards between Najee Harris, who didn’t miss a game last year, and also being banged up and missing time himself. As the starter this season, I think it is safe to say the only thing which could stop him from leading the team in rushing is injury. Otherwise, he’ll have more than enough opportunity to be “the man” in the running game, at last in 2025.
Why it won’t happen: The drafting of Johnson, even in the 3rd Round, is widely consider a match made in heaven. Johnson’s skill set meshes perfectly with what Arthur Smith wants to do as an offensive coordinator in the running game. Johnson has the look and build of an NFL running back, and if the offensive line can open holes for him, he could prove to be a very valuable commodity early in the process.
If that happens, it would cut into Warren’s carries significantly, and put him at risk of not leading the team in rushing. We’ll see more of what Johnson can do, but let’s not pretend Warren is an entrenched starter in any capacity. Johnson will get his shot to prove his worth in training camp and the preseason.
Outside of that, Warren has struggled with injury, most notably last season. If Warren misses a game or two it won’t just cut into his statistics, but will also open the door for the rookie to take the reigns and never let go.
Prediction: I personally think Warren is the type of back to at least give Johnson time to be slowly merged into the role he’ll eventually have full-time. I do think by season’s end Johnson will be getting more carries, but I see it being more 60-40, in favor of Warren, than anything else.
With that said, I foresee Warren being able to hold down the throne of leading rusher for the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2025. I think he’ll have about what Najee Harris had in 2024: 1,043 yards rushing.
Miss a scenario? You can see the full list of scenarios below, and be sure to stay tuned to SCN for the latest news and notes surrounding the Steelers as they prepare for training camp.
The Steelers will go above and beyond their win-loss prediction in 2025
The Steelers will throw more INTs than last season
The Steelers will eclipse 50 sacks in 2025
The Steelers Defense Will Have More Takeaways This Season
Aaron Rodgers will start all 17 games in 2025
DK Metcalf Will Have Double-Digit Receiving TDs
T.J. Watt will break the single-season sack record
The Steelers Will Rush For More Than 2000 Yards In 2025
The Steelers will have a Top 5 Rush Defense
Jalen Ramsey will return to the Pro Bowl in 2025
The Steelers will have a winning record in the AFC North
The Steelers will have a kickoff return for a TD in 2025
I hope for Warren’s ball security to greatly improve if he’s getting over 200 carries. I’ve bad memories of Franco Harris and Sidney Thornton. And that the OL blocks well.
Very nice Warren article @ SteelersNow today, no mention of ball security. Sorry, I like lemons sometimes…
I don’t see this one. As much as I like JW I really think his best fit is as more of a change of pace type back. (I think he should be much more active in the passing game game, but that’s another topic.) I’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t have 750 yards, and a fist full of TD’s. Lead the pack though? No. I think the rookie takes the lead dog role after the bye, or at least I hope he does – that’ll mean he is a stud, and the RB room is sorted for a few years.
Heck, Warren should accrue 1k yards combined (say 700 rushing, 300 receiving), he did more that in ’23. Given good health and blocking, and allowing Gainwell to get in some reps, considering 500+ rushes, hopefully successful ones. And I’ll generously allow Kaleb until the first Bengals game to start getting ca. half of the total carries–don’t want KJ20 hitting any walls.
Good point. That “wall” is part of what happened to the O line last season.
Ouch, JoeB, Pgh did gain 2166 yds on 533 carries in ’24. And yes, they should have been better than that. If you’re not careful, I’ll send ya a gift card to Dangerously Delicious Pies, so you can get a t-shirt.
Ha! Seriously though, I do think part of the fall off in offensive production was due to two rookies manning the interior of the O line. They ran out of gas. I said I was concerned with that possibility around mid season, and I still think I was right.
Those young guys having an “NFL” offseason of training and nutrition hopefully pays off with a big sophomore jump.
One hopes, and that Troy gets tough legs, Broderick learns snap count, etc..
The thing to keep in mind about Jaylen Warren is that he’s a player who has been underestimated at every stage of his football career. And the fact that he’s now in a position to be the Steelers’ featured RB is a testament to his grit and determination. If Aaron Rodgers is able to exploit Warren’s uncanny abilities as a third-down or check-down receiver, we’re going to see plenty of explosive plays and receiving yardage in addition to his rushing totals.
And this isn’t in any way to knock Najee Harris because Najee will continue to be one of the best RBs in the league — perhaps even better playing in a different offensive scheme with the Chargers.
Heck, Eddie Faulkner and Warren Sharp like Warren, too. Warren will get touches. As Noll might say, “Who’s Najee?”.
a true Pittsburgh Steelers fan, since the 70’s I see Jaylen Warren getting more yards because Najee Harris is gone and I don’t know how good is Kaleb Johnson
No one does, Ed, though Warren hasn’t proven himself as a lead back, either.