30 Scenarios in 30 Days: The Steelers defense will keep opponents under 20 points a game
The Pittsburgh Steelers are preparing for the 2025 regular season, but before the real games begin, the team has to head to training camp back at Saint Vincent College in order to fine tune their skills. As we here at SCN prepare you for the start of camp, we give you a series called “30 Scenarios in 30 Days” which gives you a Steelers scenario every day leading up to the start of camp.
It is simple how it works. We provide you the scenario, reasons why it will or won’t happen, and then our prediction for what we think will take place.
Let’s get to the scenario…
Scenario: The Steelers defense will keep opponents under 20 points a game
Why it will happen: Just to be clear, this scenario is about the Steelers defense keeping their opponents under 20 points on average for the 2025 season, not in every game. If it was an every game requirement, there’s no way I would bank on that.
The biggest reason why the Steelers can keep their opponent under 20 points this year is because it’s not that much of a stretch. The Steelers held their opponents to 19.0 points a game in 2023. In 2024, with the Steelers facing one of the toughest schedules in the league, they were not far off the mark allowing only 20.4 points per game. With the Steelers looking to severely upgrade their secondary after being the 25th best passing defense last year, the biggest place that can be seen is on the scoreboard. For that reason, averaging less than 20 points surrendered is a reasonable goal.
Why it won’t happen: Even though the Steelers did keep their opponents to 19.0 points in 2023, that’s the only time it’s been under 20 in the last four seasons. The Steelers also gave up 20.4 points in 2022, and in 2021 they gave up 23.4 points a game. So to go under 20.0, the Steelers would be resetting the trend.
The other reason it will be a difficult task for the Steelers to keep their opponents under 20 points this season is because of opponents they face. The Steelers have four games with the top three scoring teams from 2024 who all averaged more than 30 points a game in the Detroit Lions, Buffalo Bills, and two games against the Baltimore Ravens. Additionally, the Steelers have two games against the sixth-highest scoring team in the Bengals who averaged 27.8 points last year. When it comes to games against teams on the other end of the spectrum, the Steelers face four teams who averaged less than 20 points scored in 2024 in the New York Jets, Chicago Bears, New England Patriots, and Cleveland Browns. So while there will be some chances to have some low scoring games, there’s a lot more coming from high-powered teams. In all, the Steelers have games in 2025 against teams that, in total, averaged 23.9 points per game.
Prediction: This time, I think this one is easy. The Steelers should have a better defense in 2025 than they did in 2024. In 2024, they were only 0.4 points away from holding their opponents to 20 points. For me, I think this is more than enough of a difference for them to overcome and would like to see the Steelers have an average even less than the 19.0 points they surrendered in 2023.
Miss a scenario? You can see the full list of scenarios below, and be sure to stay tuned to SCN for the latest news and notes surrounding the Steelers as they prepare for training camp.
The Steelers will go above and beyond their win-loss prediction in 2025
The Steelers will throw more INTs than last season
The Steelers will eclipse 50 sacks in 2025
The Steelers Defense Will Have More Takeaways This Season
Aaron Rodgers will start all 17 games in 2025
DK Metcalf Will Have Double-Digit Receiving TDs
T.J. Watt will break the single-season sack record
The Steelers Will Rush For More Than 2000 Yards In 2025
The Steelers will have a Top 5 Rush Defense
Jalen Ramsey will return to the Pro Bowl in 2025
The Steelers will have a winning record in the AFC North
The Steelers will have a kickoff return for a TD in 2025
Pat Freiermuth will lead the Steelers in touchdowns in 2025
The Steelers will have a winning record at home in 2025
Jaylen Warren will lead the Steelers in rushing
The Steelers will have 30 passing TDs in 2025
Alex Highsmith will have double-digit sacks in 2025
The Steelers will have at least one 2025 starter who is not yet on the roster
Cam Heyward will be named All-Pro in 2025
The Steelers will have a winning September in 2025
Patrick Queen will set career highs in sacks and INTs
The Steelers will have a winning December in 2025
T.J Watt will win Defensive Player of the Year in 2025
The Steelers will not play a meaningless regular season game in 2025
Aaron Rodgers will surpass the Steelers 2024 passing statistics
I think this should be the expectation for this team, as we hold the Steelers defense to a very high standard. Is there any chance Teryl Austin gets fired mid season if things aren’t going smoothly? I know it’s not the norm, but nothing has been normal this offseason, which may very well carry into the regular season.
I think there is zero chance Teryl Austin is severed midseason, even if the defense is playing poorly, John S. I say this while disclosing that I find Austin’s DC tenure disappointing… Keith Butler was better, though ’21 was poor.
I don’t think so either nor do I want that per se, but I do think at the end of last season there were a lot of questions about scheme. I do think the defense will be better this year though. Hoping they hit the under 20 ppg club
Likewise. D must help O.
I think also, Austin is nowhere near as bad as Canada was.
No, he’s bland, not incompetent. Should be better than he is, though.
Agree with Dave here, though they’ll need to put that work in. Maybe take calculated risks. We’ll see.
Definitely on the under.
Is there a metric that compares time of possession to points allowed? 2nd question, where can I find yearly TOP stats?
Either Warren Sharp Analysis or Aaron Schatz’ FTN may have TOP summarized, but they may want money, like PFF, which also would have that data. Clayton Eckert works with PFF data, he must pay for access. Dunno about TOP/pts yielded.