30 Scenarios in 30 Days: The Steelers will have 30 passing TDs in 2025
The Pittsburgh Steelers are preparing for the 2025 regular season, but before the real games begin, the team has to head to training camp back at Saint Vincent College in order to fine tune their skills. As we here at SCN prepare you for the start of camp, we give you a series called “30 Scenarios in 30 Days” which gives you a Steelers scenario every day leading up to the start of camp.
It is simple how it works. We provide you the scenario, reasons why it will or won’t happen, and then our prediction for what we think will take place.
Let’s get to the scenario…
Scenario: The Steelers will have 30 passing TDs in 2025
Why it will happen: When the Steelers have passed for more than 30 touchdowns in a season, they have gone well over. It has happened five different seasons for the Steelers, all of which have been under head coach Mike Tomlin, and all have been at least 33 touchdowns whenever the Steelers reach 30.
The most recent season with the Steelers threw more than 30 touchdowns was in 2020 when the Steelers had 35 passing touchdowns which tied them for the franchise record from two years prior in 2018. The first time the Steelers went over 30 touchdowns was in 2007 when they threw for 34. The other two seasons saw 33 touchdown passes in 2014 and 2016. Of these five seasons, the Steelers made the postseason in all of them except for 2018.
When it comes to current Steelers quarterback in Aaron Rodgers, he has more seasons with 30 touchdowns or more than the Steelers have as a franchise. Rodgers has gone over 30 touchdowns eight times in his career and has been close every season in which he has double digit starts. The fewest amount of touchdown passes Rodgers is thrown in a season with at least 10 starts was 25 in 2018. In fact, Rodgers has broken the 40 touchdown mark three times in his career with his top season being 2020 where he threw for 48 touchdowns. Even though he only had 28 touchdowns last season, it is not far off the mark despite a struggling New York Jets team who had 31 passing touchdowns as a team.
Why it won’t happen: There are many common characteristics of the seasons where the Steelers threw for 30 touchdowns or more, but the biggest is quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Even though he only threw for 22 touchdowns his final season with the Steelers team total being 23, the Steelers saw a huge drop off after Roethlisberger‘s retirement as they only had 12 and 13 touchdown passes in 2002 in 2003 respectively. The Steelers saw a jump in 2024 with the combination of Justin Fields and Russell Wilson, but still only managed 21 passing touchdowns.
With the quarterback being a key factor in the number of passing touchdowns, there still has to be players to catch them. Even though the Steelers traded for DK Metcalf and have a very strong tight end group, questions still remain at wide receiver which could make finding the end zone through the air even more difficult. Additionally, with the team still obviously relying on a strong defense, the Steelers have taken an approach the last several seasons of being more concerned about protecting the football and not putting their defense in a bad spot than they are putting points on the board.
Prediction: I must admit that 30 passing touchdowns in a season is a pretty high number. The Steelers have done it so it’s not that it’s impossible. There were eight NFL teams that passed for 30 touchdowns or more in 2024 including Aaron Rodgers’ New York Jets.
But this isn’t just about the possibility of hitting this mark, it’s about the actuality. Frankly, I don’t want the Steelers to throw for 30 touchdowns. When the Steelers won their fifth Super Bowl in 2005, they had 21 passing touchdowns during that season and only 19 in 2008 when they won their sixth Lombardi. The 2010 season saw the Steelers reach the Super Bowl throwing only 22 touchdowns. So ultimately, passing touchdowns does not equates to ultimate success.
For me, this is about the style of play the Steelers will probably continue to employ. The Steelers aren’t looking to get into shootouts or put up massive amount of passing yards. But will the Steelers be able to find the end zone on the ground? Of the Steelers 14 rushing touchdowns from 2024, 13 of them are no longer on the team as Najee Harris had six, Justin Fields had five, and Russell Wilson added two rushing touchdowns. Only Jaylen Warren and his one rushing touchdown returns for 2025. So I must admit if the Steelers can’t punch the ball into the end zone, they do have a quarterback and some pretty big tight end targets that should be able to get the job done.
After all this debate, my ultimate prediction is the Steelers are not going to throw for 30 touchdowns. I think they’ll throw for more than last year‘s 21, but they will also find success in having a balanced attack of running and passing when getting into the end zone.
Miss a scenario? You can see the full list of scenarios below, and be sure to stay tuned to SCN for the latest news and notes surrounding the Steelers as they prepare for training camp.
The Steelers will go above and beyond their win-loss prediction in 2025
The Steelers will throw more INTs than last season
The Steelers will eclipse 50 sacks in 2025
The Steelers Defense Will Have More Takeaways This Season
Aaron Rodgers will start all 17 games in 2025
DK Metcalf Will Have Double-Digit Receiving TDs
T.J. Watt will break the single-season sack record
The Steelers Will Rush For More Than 2000 Yards In 2025
The Steelers will have a Top 5 Rush Defense
Jalen Ramsey will return to the Pro Bowl in 2025
The Steelers will have a winning record in the AFC North
The Steelers will have a kickoff return for a TD in 2025
Pat Freiermuth will lead the Steelers in touchdowns in 2025
I’ll be A-okay if AARod accrues stats similar to what he generated in 2010, only with four fewer interceptions. Not greedy at all, with a running game and good defense, that should be ca. 11 wins for the team.
If you are going to wish for a past season of Rodgers might as well go with 2020 (48/5). I mean if we are going to wish let’s wish big.
I would like to see the team throw for more than 30 TD’s, as that says they will be more entertaining than they have been the last several years. I’d like to see: :
Metcalf catch 10
J. Smith catch 7
Friermuth catch 6
Washington Catch 3
Austin catch 3
Warren catch 3
R. Wilson catch1
Total: 33 for the year
And here’s the kicker–Rodgers is injured on the first play of the year and Rudolph is the one responsible for all these TD’s. Haha.
Interesting twist, but better if AARod were benched, not injured. Hollywood couldn’t write that, JoeB could, though. I’d be A-okay with 33 passing TDs, if Pgh runs for 2300 yds and 20+ TDs.
Hmm 30 passing TD’s for the Steelers. That usually takes about 3-seasons. Rodgers did have 28 in 2024 and being another year away from the injury I would like to think that 35 is in the cards.