30 Scenarios in 30 Days: The Steelers will have a winning September in 2025
The Pittsburgh Steelers are preparing for the 2025 regular season, but before the real games begin, the team has to head to training camp back at Saint Vincent College in order to fine tune their skills. As we here at SCN prepare you for the start of camp, we give you a series called “30 Scenarios in 30 Days” which gives you a Steelers scenario every day leading up to the start of camp.
It is simple how it works. We provide you the scenario, reasons why it will or won’t happen, and then our prediction for what we think will take place.
Let’s get to the scenario…
Scenario: The Steelers will have a winning September in 2025
Why it will happen: The first question might be why the month of September is important. First, it is the month which the Steelers have had the worst record since 2007. Also, every season the Steelers had a .500 record or better since 2007, the Steelers have made the playoffs. If they had a losing September, the Steelers have not qualified for the postseason. So the importance of September under head coach Mike Tomlin has been established.
Since the Steelers have four games in September, going .500 is still on the table. So can the Steelers win three of their first four games? Let’s remember who they face the first four weeks of the season:
Week 1: Sunday, 9/7, @ New York Jets 1 PM
Week 2: Sunday, 9/14 vs Seattle Seahawks 1 PM
Week 3: Sunday 9/21 @ New England Patriots 1 PM
Week 4: Sunday 9/28 vs Minnesota Vikings 9:30 AM (in Dublin)
The Steelers start their season against three teams who did not make the playoffs in 2024. The only team who made he postseason last year who the Steelers face in these four weeks is the Minnesota Vikings, who they face in Dublin, Ireland. So the Steelers will be traveling for three of their four games although one of the matchups is technically a home game. When it comes to their road matchups, neither team had more than five victories last year. So it shapes up for the Steelers to have the home-field advantage against better competition and have to handle lesser teams on the road through their first four games.
Why it won’t happen: The Steelers have been back-and-forth when it comes to their September records over the last seven seasons. The Steelers went 3–0 and 2020, 2–1 in 2023, and 3–1 in 2024. The other four seasons the Steelers only won one game in September. So it’s not a recent trend for them to start fast outside of the last two seasons.
Additionally, there are no easy games to start the season. The one game in Pittsburgh is against the team that went 10–7 last year but failed to qualify for the postseason in the NFC. The two teams the Steelers face that had weaker records last season, albeit they have both had significant changes with new head coaches going into 2025, are on the road. So it’s not out of the realm of possibilities for the Steelers to drop one or two of their first three games. While I hope the Steelers would step up to the plate in Ireland, their Week 4 record has been atrocious under Mike Tomlin, and the Steelers have not won games in both Week 3 and Week 4, remembering sometimes one of those weeks is a bye week, since the early 2000s. So while it’s almost guaranteed the Steelers will drop at least one game in September, it’s not that far of a stretch to envision them dropping two.
The bottom line is, it’s more about the Steelers than their opponents when it comes to starting the season. Although 2–2 isn’t out of the question at all, getting that third win to have a winning record in September is a whole different story.
Prediction: The Steelers are a very different squad from 2024. There are very few starters on offense that are still around, and the Steelers have made major changes in their defensive secondary. While there is a potential for this to work out well, there’s also the potential to take some time as players get comfortable in their new settings. Honestly, going 2–2 in September would not be the end of the world for this team. But going 3-1 sets them up better for things in the future.
When I made my original prediction when the schedule came out, I had the Steelers going 3–1 in September. So I’m going to stick with this. But say I’m confident in the call before training camp is not something I’m willing to state (even though I placed a wager on a 4-0 start with pretty good odds).
I know what many of you will have to say: But what about December? Stay tuned for this one…
Miss a scenario? You can see the full list of scenarios below, and be sure to stay tuned to SCN for the latest news and notes surrounding the Steelers as they prepare for training camp.
The Steelers will go above and beyond their win-loss prediction in 2025
The Steelers will throw more INTs than last season
The Steelers will eclipse 50 sacks in 2025
The Steelers Defense Will Have More Takeaways This Season
Aaron Rodgers will start all 17 games in 2025
DK Metcalf Will Have Double-Digit Receiving TDs
T.J. Watt will break the single-season sack record
The Steelers Will Rush For More Than 2000 Yards In 2025
The Steelers will have a Top 5 Rush Defense
Jalen Ramsey will return to the Pro Bowl in 2025
The Steelers will have a winning record in the AFC North
The Steelers will have a kickoff return for a TD in 2025
Pat Freiermuth will lead the Steelers in touchdowns in 2025
The Steelers will have a winning record at home in 2025
Jaylen Warren will lead the Steelers in rushing
The Steelers will have 30 passing TDs in 2025
Alex Highsmith will have double-digit sacks in 2025
The Steelers will have at least one 2025 starter who is not yet on the roster
Will there be a scenario for the game at Buffalo (attached to Dec, easy addition to me), or the coincidence that the ’25 schedule’s linchpin is an away, night game vs. Chargers, like in ’21?
At adding the Bills in late Nov, one could add the Jan Ravens game, and just alter that scenario to Pgh’s final six games in ’25.