30 Scenarios in 30 Days: The Steelers will not play a meaningless regular season game in 2025
The Pittsburgh Steelers are preparing for the 2025 regular season, but before the real games begin, the team has to head to training camp back at Saint Vincent College in order to fine tune their skills. As we here at SCN prepare you for the start of camp, we give you a series called “30 Scenarios in 30 Days” which gives you a Steelers scenario every day leading up to the start of camp.
It is simple how it works. We provide you the scenario, reasons why it will or won’t happen, and then our prediction for what we think will take place.
Let’s get to the scenario…
Scenario: The Steelers will not play a meaningless regular season game in 2025
Why it will happen: It is important to remember that since the scenario is a negative, saying that it will happen means that the Steelers will not play a meaningless game in 2025. It is also important to remember that there are two types of meaningless games that are played at the end of the regular season. First, and most common, is because a team has been eliminated from playoff contention. The other type of meaningless game to close out a season is when a team has made the postseason and can neither improve their standing or fall farther behind.
Since Mike Tomlin took over as the Steelers head coach in 2007, The Steelers have only played five meaningless games to close out the regular season. Of those five, four of which were where the Steelers were locked into the playoffs and rested players because there was no change, or reasonable expectation of a change, in their positioning. The only time the Steelers have played a regular season game under Mike Tomlin where they had been eliminated from postseason contention was in the 2012 season. After falling to the Cincinnati Bengals 13–10 in Week 16, the Steelers were sitting at 7–8 and mathematically out of the playoffs when they faced the Cleveland Browns for Week 17. The Steelers won the game 24–10 and finish the season at 8–8.
The four occasions where the Steelers were not playing a meaningful game the last week of the season due to already having their position locked in for the postseason was in 2008, 2016, 2017, and 2020.
Recent history shows us the Pittsburgh Steelers are almost always in contention. Also some fans complain about head coach Mike Tomlin never having a losing season and it doesn’t really matter, it does show that the team has stayed in the playoff picture all but one game in 18 years. So having the Steelers eliminated before Week 18 of 2025 would be a huge exception, and the fact they play the most difficult division in the NFL makes it less likely they will have everything wrapped up with a week to go in the regular season.
Why it won’t happen: Even though Mike Tomlin has only had one game where the Steelers were eliminated before the end of the regular season, that means nothing when looking at the 2025 roster. For the second year in a row, the Steelers are entering the season with a completely new quarterback room. On defense, the Steelers are looking at a mostly new secondary with questions about the age of the acquired players. With the Steelers schedule once again backloaded, albeit not as bad as last season, it is important for the Steelers to hit the ground running on all cylinders early in the season. Because there may be a learning curve as pieces come together, the Steelers could be fighting to stay alive at the end of December.
As for locking things up early and being able to rest players the final week of the season, that would be an extremely tall task in such a competitive AFC North.
Prediction: Outside of significant injuries to top players throughout the division, the chances of the AFC North being wrapped up with the Steelers in the top position before the final week of the season is extremely low. If the Steelers are having a good season, the final game against Baltimore in Week 18 might be a huge deciding factor, hence why the NFL scheduled it this way.
Looking at the Steelers already being eliminated from playoff contention before Week 18, this is a real possibility. But once again, I think it’s more of a chance that they are still alive going in to the final week. With the ultimate factor being the Steelers play the Ravens to close out this season, I am going to agree with the premise that the Steelers will not play a meaningless game in the 2025 regular season.
Miss a scenario? You can see the full list of scenarios below, and be sure to stay tuned to SCN for the latest news and notes surrounding the Steelers as they prepare for training camp.
The Steelers will go above and beyond their win-loss prediction in 2025
The Steelers will throw more INTs than last season
The Steelers will eclipse 50 sacks in 2025
The Steelers Defense Will Have More Takeaways This Season
Aaron Rodgers will start all 17 games in 2025
DK Metcalf Will Have Double-Digit Receiving TDs
T.J. Watt will break the single-season sack record
The Steelers Will Rush For More Than 2000 Yards In 2025
The Steelers will have a Top 5 Rush Defense
Jalen Ramsey will return to the Pro Bowl in 2025
The Steelers will have a winning record in the AFC North
The Steelers will have a kickoff return for a TD in 2025
Pat Freiermuth will lead the Steelers in touchdowns in 2025
The Steelers will have a winning record at home in 2025
Jaylen Warren will lead the Steelers in rushing
The Steelers will have 30 passing TDs in 2025
Alex Highsmith will have double-digit sacks in 2025
The Steelers will have at least one 2025 starter who is not yet on the roster
Cam Heyward will be named All-Pro in 2025
The Steelers will have a winning September in 2025
Patrick Queen will set career highs in sacks and INTs
Again, Williamson noted that the aggregate winning percentage for NFL teams since 1966 (’25 Pgh is the 14th instance) that have replaced their leading passer, rusher, and receiver is 0.386. This prorates to 6-7 wins. ’25 Pgh is NOT like most of those teams, however. Agree w/Dave, and understand if anyone doesn’t.
Mike Tomlin has coached 290 regular season games, only one of which was when the team was out of contention. Feel however you will about Mike Tomlin but that’s an amazing stat. I suspect that the Steelers will at least be contention for a playoff spot during their last game against the Ravens if only because their roster, while war from great, is good enough to do it. I have doubts that they will actually make the playoffs, though, given that same “decent but not great” roster.
Pgh’s mid, I agree, and Tomlin’s a good coach, and it may be better for the organization for him to move on. We”ll see what ’25 reveals.