A successful 2025 season for the Steelers will require one of Mike Tomlin’s best coaching jobs yet
It’s almost here, football fans.
NFL training camps open in less than two weeks, with the Steelers set to hit the manicured fields of Latrobe on July 24. It’s been an eventful off-season in Pittsburgh, to say the least. Big names like Minkah Fitzpatrick, Russell Wilson, George Pickens, Justin Fields and Najee Harris have been dispatched to new destinations. Equally big names — and some even bigger — have been imported to replace them. Aaron Rodgers. DK Metcalf. Jalen Ramsey. Jonnu Smith. As the saying goes, this wasn’t your father’s off-season for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Not by a long shot.
The biggest constant throughout the upheaval is the continued presence of Mike Tomlin as the team’s head coach. Tomlin enters his 19th season at the helm in Pittsburgh, making him the longest-tenured coach with the same team in the league, and the 8th-such in NFL history. Tomlin has 183 career regular-season victories, which makes it conceivable he could become the ninth head coach in league history to reach 200 wins. He’d have to go 17-0 to do so, which only the most irrational Steelers’ fans expect. But the math says it can be done.
A more realistic expectation for the team in 2025 is… what, exactly? The franchise record for wins by a head coach is 193, held by Chuck Noll. To tie Noll, the Steelers would have to go 10-7. That would equal their mark from last season. Surpassing Noll requires 11 wins, a number Pittsburgh last reached in 2020. Is that attainable? I’d say so. For Tomlin to pass Noll this season, there will have to be improvements from a year ago. To the run game. To the pass rush. To the quality of their quarterback play. That hinges upon 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers, which is a risky proposition. But it can be done.
The number Steelers’ fans are really concerned with, though, is this: 8. That’s how many seasons it’s been since Pittsburgh last won a playoff game. Winning 10 or 11 games will probably get them to the playoffs, but what will they do once they arrive? It’s too early for that conversation. Ultimately, though, this is the issue on which the 2025 season will be judged.
The Steelers have certainly operated this off-season like a team intent on ending that drought. You only sign a 41-year-old quarterback to a one-year deal to be your starter for one of two reasons. Either you have a young quarterback in place to be the future starter, and you need a veteran to hold things down until the youngster is ready to play. Or, you believe you can swing for the fences with that veteran, and if you strike out, you’ll find your quarterback of the future the next year. The Steelers fit squarely into the second category.
To land that elusive playoff win, Pittsburgh won’t need Rodgers to discover the Fountain of Youth. They’ll need him to stay healthy, play sound football, and maybe win a game or two with some big throws down the stretch. They’ll also need the new pieces they’ve assembled to come together quickly. Rodgers and Arthur Smith must get on the same page together, and collaborate on an offense that blends their disparate tendencies. DK Metcalf must find chemistry with Rodgers in the new system and re-establish himself as top receiver in the league. Jonnu Smith’s role must be defined, and his value in the offense maximized. Calvin Austin III must step up and claim the WR2 role. Broderick Jones must transition from right tackle to left tackle smoothly, and put a miserable 2024 season behind him. Troy Fautanu must step into the starting lineup and play like a veteran. Jaylen Warren must handle a larger role at running back. Kaleb Johnson must be ready to hit the ground running — literally — as a rookie.
That’s just the offense.
On defense, top draft pick Derrick Harmon must fill the void left by Larry Ogunjobi’s departure, and ideally provide an upgrade. Patrick Queen must be better acclimated to the scheme in his second season in Pittsburgh. Jalen Ramsey must learn Teryl Austin’s system quickly, and smooth some of the communication errors that plagued the secondary last season. Darius Slay must show he has something left in the tank at age 35. Juan Thornhill must step into Fitzpatrick’s giant shoes and play solid football. Cole Holcomb recovering from his knee injury to provide depth at linebacker would be nice. As would Nick Herbig’s continued development. Payton Wilson’s too.
Oh, and that T.J. Watt guy. That situation needs to get settled.
Whose job is it to make sure all of these things come together seamlessly?
Mike Tomlin’s.
Given everything described above, it’s fair to say Tomlin must author one of the best coaching jobs of his career to make it happen. He will have to summon all off the things that make a head coach great to create the chemistry and culture that will allow this team to flourish. He will have to communicate well to ensure the new additions understand the expectations in Pittsburgh. He will have to be a great leader, to set the desired tone for the season. He will have to hold players accountable when they do not meet the vaunted “standard” about which he likes to pontificate. He’ll need to do the same for his assistant coaches. He will have to manage the mercurial Rodgers in a way that respects the level of gravitas the veteran has earned, but doesn’t allow him to operate by a different set of rules, as he did with the Jets. Tomlin will have to find the sweet spot between pushing the young players, pulling back on the veterans, and sensing the zeitgeist of his football team.
A head coach must do all these things every year to be successful. But this season, with so many new faces in Pittsburgh, and with the team in “win-now” mode with Rodgers at quarterback, the importance of getting it all right is urgent. Whether Pittsburgh ends its playoff drought or not is as reliant upon Tomlin’s ability to manage and guide this football team as anything else.
Can he do it? We’ll find out soon enough. A dozen days to Latrobe and counting…
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My children keep asking me, “Do you think the Steelers will be good this year?” (They are all Eagles fans). My response: “I don’t know, we’ll have to wait and see.” If this was 2005, 2011 or 2016 I would have said, “yes, the Steelers will be good and have the possibility of going to the Super Bowl.” As much as I want to believe that’s a possibility for this team, I haven’t been able to believe that since 2018.
I like to look at these things backwards to check the perspective. So: what is this team missing to be a legitimate AFC champion?
On offense, it all comes down to the line. Aaron Rodgers needs a running game, time, and health to make full use of his remaining talents. The answer to all three? OL, OL, and OL.Live, die, survive, succeed, or excel: everything will depend on and reflect the OL.
On defense, the team needs fewer minutes (see reliance on the OL), TJ Watt, and a series of little things they’ve addressed to go right. The DL should be better, but young talent takes time to develop at that position. The ILBs and CBs are all but guaranteed to be significantly better if people stay healthy. The only real question is Free Safety… a position that teams can cover for with pass rush, CBs, and front line run defense.
In other words, the Steelers have addressed everything they need with solid young talent. The main question is whether that talent will develop as we hope. Tomlin needs to get all the new moving parts working in sync. He’s a HOF-level master at that, however daunting it would be for others. But in the end it’s going to come down to Broderick Jones, Troy Fautanu, Zach Frazier, Keeanu Benton, and Joey Porter Jr. A/K/A The Round 1 & 2 picks from the most recent draft classes.
I look at the Steelers biggest problem as the path. The top of the AFC is a very difficult path. Buffalo, Kansas City and Baltimore are all in Super Bowl contention. If you start with the premise that you are likely the 5 or 6 seed in playoffs the best case is you end up playing AFC South Champ (Houston) which isn’t a cake walk and then you have to beat either Lamar, Mahomes or Allen just to get the AFC Championship game and then the Super Bowl requires you to beat one more of them. by the way those would all be on the road.
I personally don’t look at the years since a playoff win. Each year is different. I look more at years without getting into the playoffs as a bigger deal with 2018 being the worst. That three game losing stretch to Denver, San Diego and Oakland really turned a season with a lot of potential. The Mason/duck year was a miracle to get to 8 wins let alone playoffs. Finally, the Pickett rookie season was really about the start of the season and Trubisky. Granted he only started 5 games, but the start killed them.
I like this team’s makeup, but I think their win ceiling might be 12 games with how the schedule breaks. If Tomlin can get to 12 or more wins it will be a fantastic job and will also mean that Rodgers played at near a 2021 level.
And/or the running game clicked. Tough ’25 schedule. I hope for 11 wins in regular season, and ’18 was disappointing.