Film Room: Will Aaron Rodgers be an upgrade for the Steelers at quarterback?

The news broke on Thursday that the long-anticipated Aaron Rodgers-to-the-Steelers marriage has been consummated. Rodgers signed a one-year deal with Pittsburgh, and will attend the team’s mandatory mini-camp next week.

At age 41, Rodgers is coming off of one of his worst professional seasons last year with the New York Jets. His numbers were decent — 3,996 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, a 63.0 completion percentage, and a 90.5 passer rating — but they palled in comparison to some of the absurd statistics he compiled in his prime. No one will argue Rodgers is anywhere near his prime these days, and his performance in New York last season was consistent with an aging quarterback playing for a bad football team. But Rodgers still does plenty of things well, too, and should provide Pittsburgh a much-needed upgrade at the quarterback position.

Watching film of Rodgers with the Jets provided me with a few thoughts on what Steelers fans should expect from him as their starting quarterback. Here’s a summary, with much of this demonstrated in the video at the bottom of the article.

ACCURACY/MOBILITY

Rodgers is still very accurate when he can set his feet, and his release remains quick. He has lost some of the zip on his fastball, but the accuracy and quick release tend to compensate. When he is set in the pocket, he can still carve up a defense in a way no Steelers quarterback has been able to do since Ben Roethlisberger.

Rodgers is not nearly the player he once was when off-platform, though, meaning throws he’s forced to make where his feet aren’t set, or his body is at an awkward angle. These types of throws were once the hallmarks of Rodgers’ game, but decreased mobility and arm strength have robbed him of that gift. As a result, pass protection for the Steelers will be huge. If they can keep Rodgers clean, he can still play the game at a high level. When his feet are cluttered and he’s under pressure, not so much.

Rodgers had the lowest QBR of any starting quarterback in the league last season against the blitz, meaning defenses had a lot of success when they made him uncomfortable. The line will have a huge impact on whether this remains true in Pittsburgh. Because of this, it’s a huge year for third-year left tackle Broderick Jones. Jones gave up more sacks than any tackle in the league last season, and this year he kicks over to the left to protect Rodgers’ blind side. The good news is this is Jones’s natural position. The bad news is if Jones doesn’t progress, Rodgers might get killed.

Also, it seems imperative now that the Steelers add another established receiver to their rotation. If the team is going to roll with Rodgers, they must provide him the weapons he needs to be successful. The Steelers cannot hope one of their unproven receivers steps up and claims the WR2 role. They should target one immediately and find a way to make a deal.

PROGRESSIONS

Rodgers still gets through his progressions quickly, which is a significant upgrade for the Steelers. Pittsburgh has not had a quarterback on the roster who could progress beyond a first read since Roethlisberger. This has limited the creativity of the passing game, which has been a steady diet of first-reads and checkdowns for several seasons now. With Rodgers, mid-level throws and in-breaking routes, which are often second or third reads, are back into play. That should help the passing game evolve.

One player who stands to benefit from this is Pat Freiermuth. Arthur Smith loves tight ends, and although Freiermuth had a decent season last year, catching 65 passes and seven touchdowns, it feels as though he remains underutilized in the offense. Much of that has been because Pittsburgh’s quarterbacks throughout his career have been unable to work through their progressions and deliver the ball into the middle of the field, where tight ends are often most effective. A strong connection between Rodgers and Freiermuth could really open up the passing game.

BIGGEST FLAWS

Rodgers sometimes forces throws into coverage he could once make, but no longer can. Call it hubris if you want, or simply the brain seeing something the body can’t manufacture. As a result, he’s thrown 23 interceptions in his last two full seasons as a starting quarterback. By contrast, he threw just 21 picks in five seasons between 2017-2021. Smith will want Rodgers to attack in the passing game, but he will have to find the sweet spot between allowing Rodgers to be Rodgers and protecting the football.

Also, Rodgers has lost his escape-ability. He can still move out of the pocket, but only by design. If he has to improvise to escape, it’s not good. When the pocket collapses around him, he often turtles up and takes sacks. The good news is that Rodgers’ mobility improved as last season progressed, hinting he had recovered from the Achilles injury that ended his 2023 season after just four plays. He is still mobile enough to execute the designed bootlegs and sprint-outs that Smith likes, which has the added benefit of getting Rodgers away from the rush. The bad news is that when Rodgers is in the pocket, the ball needs to come out on time. If not, he’s a sitting duck.

Overall, while his quarterback rating was lower than that of Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, he played the game at a higher level last season than both. He should give the Steelers their best quarterback play since Roethlisberger. Rodgers’ best might be mediocre, and I don’t know how far a mediocre Rodgers gets the Steelers. But for one season, he’s probably the team’s best option at the position.

For my video breakdown on Rodgers, click the player below. And for more of my work, follow me on X @KTSmithFFSN, and tune into my “Call Sheet Daily” podcast, which runs every Monday-Friday on most major platforms.

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MattCat
MattCat
10 hours ago

Honest and well-summarized, Coach. Thank you for presenting play-related material. Feels like a shower after a rigorous summer football practice.

Bill Dundas
Bill Dundas
9 hours ago

Not so sure that Rodgers has lost anything significant in terms of his overall game. The Jets team he was playing for last season certainly wasn’t on a par with the Packers teams Rodgers used to play for. And considering the lengthy recovery period from his Achilles injury — plus the fact he was playing for a very suspect Jets organization — I don’t see any reason why Rodgers couldn’t perform nearly as well this coming season as he did four or five years ago — barring injury of course.

I do agree with the key importance of OL play to Aaron’s success. If he’s well protected, Rodgers still has the ability to carve up any defense. Another factor is that, anytime a quarterback changes teams in consecutive years, it’s never easy to quickly develop a comfort level with his new cast of teammates — particularly with receivers and RBs. But Rodgers has the experience to reduce this learning curve.

MattCat
MattCat
9 hours ago
Reply to  Bill Dundas

I respectfully disagree with the first paragraph. AARod’s decline in play began in 2022, as a Packer. There is hard data.

As to the second paragraph, AARod will have to show me his ability to adapt to a new team. His semester begins with a passing physical exam.

Bill Dundas
Bill Dundas
7 hours ago
Reply to  MattCat

I’m not claiming that Rodgers has discovered the Fountain of Youth, but the sharp drop-off he experienced during his final season with the Packers (2022) is understandable given a couple of relevant factors:

* After signing a 3-year $150 million contract with the Packers prior to the 2022 season, Rodgers was given the keys to run the offense as he wished. The Packers began the season with a 3-1 record. But in Week 5, Rodgers suffered a broken thumb on his throwing hand which marked the beginning of the Packers’ 5-game losing streak. Rodgers played better later in the season after his thumb had more time to heal.
* Prior to the 2022 season, Rodgers lost his favorite receiver Davante Adams who was dealt to the Raiders.

So I’m more inclined to give Rodgers a pass on his performance during his final season in Green Bay as well as his 2024 season with the hapless Jets. But now we’ll all be able to see for ourselves whether Rodgers truly has lost his mojo or whether he has just had a few unfortunate years.

MattCat
MattCat
7 hours ago
Reply to  Bill Dundas

And, I must insist AARod will have to Show me, like anyone else would. No passes here, I expect 11 wins. We shall indeed see.

SteelYinzer
SteelYinzer
9 hours ago

As always, excellent breakdown Coach!

MattCat
MattCat
9 hours ago
Reply to  SteelYinzer

Yes, and nice trip away from the news drop.

JSegursky
JSegursky
8 hours ago

Are you at all concerned with his checkdown frequency with the NYJ’s? I believe he was a top checkdown guy last year (along with Wlson, Fields and Rudolph).

@KTSmithFFSN
@KTSmithFFSN
7 hours ago
Reply to  JSegursky

I’ll have to watch more film to be sure of what I’m about to say… but it looks like he’s throwing to open routes early in his progression more than he’s checking the ball down. He recognizes coverage and takes what’s there a lot, as opposed to “checking the ball down,” which to me means he’s not going through progressions but rather peeking at his first option and then immediately looking for the checkdown.

I’ll have to look at more film to be sure of this. But if it’s true, there’s a difference. And the difference would not concern me, unless he’s doing dumb stuff like throwing a three-yard flat route on 3rd-and-7.

MattCat
MattCat
7 hours ago
Reply to  @KTSmithFFSN

Matt Williamson reviewed this two weeks ago, don’t recall source, probably PFF. His Scout’s Eye pod (?) w/DK Pgh Sports. It could be PFF’s definition of checkdown.

MattCat
MattCat
7 hours ago
Reply to  JSegursky

Yeah, Williamson broke that down. Better than getting hit.

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