How much can players move to help the Steelers compensatory formula?

After already spelling out how it’s who the players are who can count to the compensatory process, it’s time to look now at how things could specifically change for the Pittsburgh Steelers and their potential compensatory picks for 2026.

With there already being a lot of information to present, I’m not spelling out again how the compensatory process works. If you need to know, click HERE in order for a refresher.

The Steelers currently have a net loss of six qualifying players as estimated by Over The Cap (OTC). Who the players are cannot change, but whether or not they qualify, and what round they would qualify, is definitely able to fluctuate by the time compensatory picks are announced next spring. The Steelers have lost eight compensatory free agents that reached the estimated qualifying status and have gained two compensatory free agents with another right on the cusp of qualifying.

If the estimates for 2026 hold 100% true, the Steelers would have a third, fourth, fifth, and sixth round compensatory draft pick next season. With the Steelers having added two players from the seventh round to cancel two players from the seventh round who were lost, the two other players that aren’t canceled are also six round picks (but the NFL won’t issue more than four compensatory picks to a team).

The Steelers have a pretty nice buffer to make sure they get four picks for the next draft. It would have to take a net change of three players in order for the Steelers to not get four picks, meaning a combination of players the Steelers lost who qualify dropping out or players that they gained who aren’t currently estimated to qualify moving into the qualifying range. While this is entirely possible, it is a huge buffer in order for that many things to line up.

Below I have laid out where each player lost by the Steelers currently stands according to OTC. I included their number of points (based on average salary plus the estimated percentage of snaps played), where they rank (which ultimately is what will determine the percentile used to determine the round), their current estimated round value, their current projected snaps for 2025, and a breakdown of how they could potentially move up or down based on the results of this season.

Notes:

1. No players have been estimated to receive post-season awards such as All-Pro (+20 points) or All-Conference (+5 points).

2. All potential movement is going to be based on assuming all other players around them remain the same. Obviously they will not, but it’s tough to make an estimate with so many variables.

Before getting into the specifics of players, the current estimated rank cut off by rounds and point totals (which really shows how much a player can move) per round are listed below taken from OTC.

Estimated Rank Cutoffs:
3rd/4th: 97
4th/5th: 195
5th/6th: 293
6th/7th: 489
7th/Qual: 685

Estimated Point Cutoffs:
3rd/4th: 1936
4th/5th: 1828
5th/6th: 1732
6th/7th: 1525
7th/Qual: 1315

First let’s look at the players the Steelers lost in free agency in 2025:

Dan Moore Jr.

Points: 1955
Rank: 76
Projected Round: 3
Projected Snaps: 94%
Potential movement:  Obviously Moore can’t move a round higher,  and the best he could do is pass one other player to move up one pick. But there is plenty of potential to drop out of the third round. If Moore were to play 75% or less of the snaps, he would be right on the cusp of dropping to a fourth round pick. Luckily Moore played 99% of the Steelers offensive snaps last year, so it’s not a stretch to think he could stay above 75%.

Justin Fields

Points: 1913
Rank: 116
Projected Round: 4
Projected Snaps: 63%
Potential movement: With Fields, he is not far from qualifying for a third round pick if he plays enough snaps. Based on the current numbers, he would need to hit 86% or more of the snaps in order to move up. Luckily, Fields is not in danger of dropping out of the fourth round even if he doesn’t play a snap in 2025.

Russell Wilson

Points: 1785
Rank: 240
Projected Round: 5
Projected Snaps: 78%
Potential movement: When it comes to Wilson, his incentives are going to play a huge role. Wilson is currently at a $10.5 million APY, but he could almost double his salary based on incentives with playing time, performance (passer rating, completion percentage, touchdowns, and yards), playoff wins, and wins in game he plays more than 50% of the snaps. In fact, more than $500 K is already counting towards Wilson’s cap number as likely to be earned incentives. Gaining an additional $4 million in incentives would likely put Wilson into the fourth round. Reaching the third would be a little tough as the Giants getting a bunch of playoff wins is a stretch. But if Wilson doesn’t even hit 25% of the snaps, he very well could fall to a sixth round pick. So he is a huge wildcard, but is most likely to hold his position with the possibility of movement.

James Daniels

Points: 1708
Rank: 314
Projected Round: 6
Projected Snaps: 76%
Potential movement: Daniels is probably locked in at his spot. It would take about 100% of the snaps for him to move up to the cusp of the fifth round (unless he makes All-Pro) and there’s no way he’s going to drop out of the sixth.

Donte Jackson

Points: 1633
Rank: 384
Projected Round: 6
Projected Snaps: 65%
Potential movement: The odds of Jackson moving are very low. 100% snaps wouldn’t move him to the fifth and zero snaps would not drop him to the seventh. It would take a lot of other things from other players to make him move.

Najee Harris

Points: 1564
Rank: 457
Projected Round: 6
Projected Snaps: 63%
Potential movement: Like Russell Wilson, the biggest possibility with Harris comes in incentives. With a potential of another $4 million in rushing incentives, with the exact details something I have yet to be able to find other than knowing it’s not likely to be earned, he could move up some. If Harris adds that $4 million, he could sneak to the fifth round. But beyond that he’s not going anywhere. That would be the max for him. Also, it should be noted that Harris only played around 50% of the Steelers offensive snaps last year. So projecting 63% is quite ambitious, especially with the Chargers taking a running back in the first round. If Harris fails to reach 25% of the snaps with the Chargers, he’s falling to the seventh round.

Elandon Roberts

Points: 1338
Rank: 667
Projected Round: 7 (cancelled)
Projected Snaps: 52%
Potential movement: I don’t foresee a change in Roberts. He’s too low to move up out of the seventh round, and he would have to drop to below 30% of the snaps to no longer qualify.

Mike Williams

Points: 1326
Rank: 674
Projected Round: 7 (cancelled)
Projected Snaps: 47%
Potential movement: Much like Roberts, Williams has no shot of moving any higher and barely qualifies as a seventh round player as is. In fact, it would only take Williams dropping below 35% of the snaps for him to no longer count as a seventh round selection.

Here are the players the Steelers gained in 2025 free agency:

Malik Harrison

Points: 1481
Rank: 530
Projected Round: 7
Projected Snaps: 22% (does not qualify for added points)
Potential movement: The snap count for Harrison is going to be the big one. With his snaps not qualifying for points, it makes it difficult for Harrison to drop any lower than what he is. The bad news is if Harrison reaches 45% of the defensive snaps, he could move into the sixth round. That’s not really a big deal unless two of the players the Steelers lost fall out of the sixth round and then that would drop the Steelers final comp pick to be a seventh rounder.

Mason Rudolph

Points: 1394
Rank: 619
Projected Round: 7
Projected Snaps: 23% (does not qualify for added points)
Potential movement: The potential addition of Aaron Rodgers affecting whether Rudolph is the starter this season or not looks like it would be a big factor, but where he lies has made it insignificant. Rudolph is already as low as he can go in the snap total, and if he played 100% of the snaps it still wouldn’t be enough for him to reach the sixth round.

Brandin Echols

Points: 1297
Rank: 699
Projected Round: Non Qualifying
Projected Snaps: 29%
Potential movement: Because he is so close to the cutoff, Echols could definitely be in play. Only 18 points away from qualifying, if Echols gets close to 40% of the snaps this season he’ll probably move into qualifying. It only creates a problem if two players the Steelers lost drop out of qualifying because they have such a nice buffer at the moment.