Matchup of the Week: Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith vs. Jets defensive coordinator Steve Wilks

Welcome to our “Matchup of the Week” feature at SCN, which I’ll write every Tuesday of game week for the Steelers. In it, I’ll profile one key matchup in Pittsburgh’s upcoming game that could decide the outcome of the contest.

Today, we examine the scheme battle between Pittsburgh offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, and New York defensive coordinator Steve Wilks.

TALE OF THE TAPE

Arthur Smith — Offensive Coordinator, Pittsburgh Steelers. 43 years old. Former offensive lineman at the University of North Carolina. NFL coaching experience includes a long stint with the Tennessee Titans (2011-2019) as tight ends coach and offensive coordinator, followed by three years with the Atlanta Falcons as head coach. This is his second season as offensive coordinator in Pittsburgh.

Steve Wilks — Defensive coordinator, New York Jets. 56 years old. Former defensive back at Appalachian State University. Coaching experience includes 13 seasons at the college level in various defensive roles, plus 17 seasons in the NFL. Wilks was the defensive coordinator in Carolina (2017), Cleveland (2019) and San Francisco (2023), and the head coach in Arizona (2018) and Carolina (2022). This is his first season as defensive coordinator with the Jets.

BASE SCHEME

Smith is one of the few NFL coordinators who prefers to base out of 12-personnel (one back, two tight ends, two receivers). He also ran more 13-personnel last season than any coordinator in the league. Maybe it’s his roots as an offensive linemen, or the years he spent coaching tight ends in Tennessee. Whatever it is, Smith prefers big bodies on the field to establish a strong run game, and to create passing opportunities off of the run.

Steve Wilks has built his reputation as a defensive coordinator on being aggressive with blitzes and on stopping the run. His units have posted several top-10 finishes in rushing yards allowed per season. Wilks has based out of a 4-3 for most of his career, but his true base is some form of nickel, whether 2-4-5 or 4-2-5. Wilks has run a 4-3 on 21% of his snaps as a coordinator, while using nickel 74% of the time. That ranks as the fourth highest rate of nickel usage in the league since 2019.

Wilks also likes to dial up blitzes and to play some sort of zone coverage behind it. Excluding his stint in San Francisco, where Wilks rarely blitzed, his blitz rate as a coordinator is 39%. That’s 4th-highest in the league over that time. Wilks ran zone coverage on 74% of his total snaps, while using man just 26% of the time. His favorite zone is cover-3, but he will mix in cover-4 and cover-2 as well. His use of cover-3 and cover-4 are both higher than the NFL average since 2019.

THE SHOWDOWN

This sets up an interesting showdown. Can a run-first offense like Pittsburgh’s find success against a defense that prides itself on stopping the run? Also, with Wilks having one of the higher blitz frequencies in the league, and with Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers ranking dead last in QBR in 2024 versus the blitz, will Wilks dial up the heat to make Rodgers uncomfortable?

First, to the question of personnel. If the Steelers use heavy doses of 12 and 13 groupings, as expected, how will New York counter? If Wilks runs his preferred nickel scheme, he risks getting bullied by Pittsburgh’s bigger personnel. This could force Wilks to play more of his base 4-3, from which he operates far less frequently.

If the Jets are in their base a lot, how might Pittsburgh attack them in the run game?  The 4-3, with an extra defensive lineman on the field, is built to stop the run. It was the defense-of-choice in the 1970s and 80s when NFL offenses were mostly run-first out of 12 and 21-personnnel. But it does have weaknesses against the run.

Outside zone, a play Smith featured this pre-season, is a good scheme versus the 4-3. It allows an offense to outflank defensive ends with tight end/wing or unbalanced formations, and to force a safety or cornerback to set the edge against the run. If tight ends can reach-block defensive ends, or combo block them up to linebackers, outside zone can be effective.

If an offense wants to run between the tackles, the 4-3 has vulnerabilities on the weak side, particularly in the B-gap. As you see in the image below, an “iso” scheme which allows the weak side guard and center to double the nose up to the Mike linebacker, while the weak tackle turns out the defensive end and an additional blocker leads up on the Will backer, creates good angles and matchups. The diagram shows a fullback as the lead blocker, but that assignment can vary by formation. If the Steelers are in 12-personnel, I’d expect the off-ball tight end, either Pat Freiermuth or Jonnu Smith, to draw that assignment. Connor Heyward could do it too, as could a receiver who blocks well, like Ben Skowronek. This “Zone Insert” scheme is popular throughout the league, and Smith has run it frequently.

Play-action passes can be effective against the 4-3, too, due to the fact there are three linebackers in coverage. Conflicting those linebackers with run action and then throwing behind them is a common way to attack this front, particularly for offenses with good tight ends. This could mean opportunities for Freiermuth, Jonnu Smith and Darnell Washington, or even a crafty receiver like Scotty Miller who can find the voids in the middle of a zone.

As for the blitz, heating up Rodgers will likely be a priority for Wilks. Rodgers has seen just about everything throughout his long career, but Wilks has had all summer to design schemes against which he has struggled. The Jets know from his time with them last season what makes him uncomfortable. If they can disguise their pre-snap looks and find ways to pressure Rodgers with the blitz, they could force him into sacks by holding the ball too long, or into interceptions by buzzing his checkdown receivers. Pittsburgh’s wide receivers will have to win one-on-one matchups against New York’s defensive backs if Wilks intends to blitz heavily. The matchup of DK Metcalf versus Sauce Gardner could be crucial in this regard.

The Steelers will also have to be sound in their protection checks, and in how they want to adjust their blocking to handle the blitz. Steelers fans are excited to see rookie running back Kaleb Johnson in action, but if New York is blitzing heavily, I’d expect veteran Jaylen Warren to get the bulk of the snaps. Warren is much further along in his pass blocking and understanding of protection than is Johnson at this point, and it stands to reason the Steelers will do everything they can to keep Rodgers from getting hit, particularly in the season-opener.

Finally, if Wilks is in his favored cover-3 scheme a lot, expect the Steelers to attack the middle of the field. You can see below where some of the soft spots in a cover-3 scheme are, and how a team that attacks up the seam can isolate the safety by forcing him to play two vertical receivers simultaneously. Pittsburgh has not been great in recent seasons attacking this area of the field, but Rodgers gives them their best chance to do it well since Ben Roethlisberger was at quarterback.

It’s going to be a fun chess match between Smith and Wilks on Sunday. Get your popcorn ready!

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