No, the Pittsburgh Steelers 2026 compensatory picks are not set

With the deadline for players qualifying as compensatory free agents (CFAs) coming this past Monday at 4 PM EST, there has been some statements made about the Pittsburgh Steelers compensatory selections that are not entirely accurate. Seeing some places making statements such as that the Steelers compensatory picks for next year our “set” or “locked in,” these statements can be misleading.

If you are looking for an in-depth breakdown of the entire compensatory process, I did that earlier this offseason and you can see that article HERE. If you feel like you have a pretty good grasp on things, I’ll highlight the most important part and explain exactly where everything is at this point of the process.

So what was the significance of Monday?

That was the cut off for when unrestricted free agents can count as CFAs for the 2025 season. After this date, players signed are no longer CFAs. There is a small exception if a player was given the rare unrestricted free agent tender by their team, which did happen to two players this week. This is a complicated process to try to explain, but the bottom line is unless the Steelers sign JK Dobbins to their roster, adding an unrestricted free agent at this time does not have the player qualify as a CFA in order to cancel out one of the players the Steelers lost.

If you have seen anywhere on social media that the Steelers are going to get a third, fourth, fifth, and sixth round compensatory pick in the coming draft, that is where they are projected to get their picks for 2026 at this time. But there is still more to the equation.

So what is left?

First, if any player that the Steelers gained or lost as a CFA has an incentive that was deemed “not likely to be earned” in 2025 yet they earn the bonus this coming season, that will factor into their salary. Where this could impact the Steelers would be if a player like Russell Wilson hits some of his incentives in his contract, raising his salary for 2025.

Second, and what is ultimately the biggest factor remaining as salaries are mostly set, is a player’s playing time and awards for 2025. It is described (in the article I linked above) as follows:

3: Playing Time and Awards

With the previous number being the starting point and largest contributor, the next largest contribution will be applied which is the number of snaps played. Looking only at either the offensive or defensive side of the ball, the percentage played of the team’s total snaps of the season could award the player between 25 and 100 additional points. A player only receives points if they play at least 25% of the snaps of the season otherwise there are no points awarded. If a player played 87% of the team’s snaps, they will receive 87 points. There is a different method used for kickers and punters that is not determined by their snap counts.

The final points which can be awarded are if a player lands on the Associated Press First Team All-Pro List or the Pro Football Writers of America’s All-Conference List. A player selected First Team All-Pro receives an additional 20 points. If the player is selected All Conference, they would receive five additional points. A player cannot receive points for both awards, only the greater amount.

When looking at where the Steelers are projected to get compensatory picks, these are based on estimates from Over The Cap (OTC). They do a phenomenal job with this and nobody else comes close to their projections. Still, they are projections.

In order to have an accurate projection, OTC anticipates the percentage of snaps each player will play in 2025 in an attempt to give a more accurate number. These are just estimates of what a player could do. Some players may play more snaps than expected, while others could be faced with injury and play significantly less snaps than what is expected. Also realize that it’s not just the compensatory draft picks, but all the other players in the NFL that could shift higher or lower than expected, moving the CFA’s around.

For this reason, the Steelers could see these picks shuffle up or down. Obviously, a third round pick cannot shuffle higher, but it could fall to a fourth round pick.

For this reason, these are just estimates, and the estimates before the season do not always play out. In fact, the last time the Steelers received a compensatory draft pick it did not happen in the way it was expected which I laid out in a past article HERE.

So where could the Steelers players, both those counting for them and against them in the compensatory formula, ultimately fall in the rankings for compensatory draft picks. This is not a simple answer, therefore it will be its own article coming soon here at steelcurtainnetwork.com. So be on the lookout in the coming days as I will outline some of the biggest things to watch in 2025 when it comes to the Steelers compensatory picks for 2026.