Updating the Steelers salary cap situation after reports on Aaron Rodgers’ contract

The Pittsburgh Steelers are well into the 2025 league year. With business continuing on, I am ready to make some updates to my numbers for the salary cap availability for the Steelers. While reports come in about a deal, it can sometimes take some time to know the exact financials within the contract. Relying heavily on reliable salary cap websites such as overthecap.com (OTC) or spotrac.com, when they are able to report a player’s contract numbers over the specific years I then update the salary cap situation with a more precise number.

Remember, to determine how much each player changes the Steelers’ salary cap space, their cap number must be adjusted due to roster displacement. As a reminder, roster displacement is taking into account only the top 51 contracts for a team count towards the salary cap during the offseason. As a larger contract comes on the books, it bumps a smaller contract out of the top 51. Therefore, it’s only the difference in those contracts that increases the salary cap number.

Since my last update, there was a new, albeit very small, dead money charge due to the release of Blake Mangelson. The dead money hit was only $3,000 but still must be accounted for. Additionally, Donald Parham was placed on the Reserve/Injured List (IR), but he had a split contract so he will only count $540k against the cap. Since that contract is not in the top 51, OTC does not have it counting against the cap at this time, so neither will I.

Now for the contract that was likely going to affect the Steelers salary cap more than anything over the last three months. Now that Aaron Rodgers has signed with the Steelers, the specifics of his contract have been reported. Rodgers will earn $13.65 million with $10 million guaranteed for 2025 with another potential $5.85 million in incentives. Although I have not seen it from one of the specific salary cap websites yet, I believe this means that Rodgers’ signing bonus is $10 million and he has a $3.65 million base salary that is not guaranteed. But the big thing is going to be the nature of Rodgers incentives and if they will be “Likely To Be Earned” (LTBE) or “Not Likely To Be Earned” (NLTBE) which are based totally off of stats from the 2024 season.

As a quick refresher, only incentives that are LTBE will count on the 2025 salary cap during the season. If a LTBE incentive is not earned, then the Steelers will be credited with the money when their rollover is reported for 2026. Likewise, if incentives that are NLTBE, which do not count on the 2025 salary cap during the season, they are taken off the salary number before it is rolled over until next year if they are earned.

So here are the reported incentives for Aaron Rodgers for 2025. It should be noted that all of these incentives only kick in if he plays at least 70% of the snaps on offense during the regular season. If not, none of these will be earned.

• $500,000 if the Steelers make the playoffs.
• $600,000 for a Wild Card win with 50%+ snaps played in the game (or a first-round bye).
• $750,000 for a Divisional win with 50%+ snaps played in the game.
• $1 million for AFC Championship Game win with 50%+ snaps played in the game.
• $1.5 million for a Super Bowl win with 50%+ snaps played in the game.
• $1.5 million for winning the AP NFL MVP award.

So which of these incentives are likely to be earned? Since Rodgers played more than 70% of the snaps in 2024, everything is in play. Rodgers did not win the MVP last season, so that is NLTBE. All the rest of the incentives are based on the Steelers performance. The only one that did occur last season was the Steelers making the playoffs, so only that $500 K will count at this time against the salary cap. Everything else falls into the NLTBE category.

Now knowing about the incentives, this means that Rodgers’ salary cap hit for the 2025 season will be $14.15 million. Displacing the contract of Jack Sawyer out of the top 51 worth $1.077733 million, Rodgers salary reduces the Steelers salary cap by $13.072267 million.

It should be noted (and I’m talking to you Edward Carmichael who keeps repeating the false information in the comments), the money paid to Aaron Rodgers in no way takes away from what the Steelers can pay T.J. Watt. If Watt’s new contract is in typical fashion, it will actually reduce his cap hit for 2025. Since Rodgers contract is only for 2025, it’s not taking away from the cap space Watt will add in future years. If any contract would affect Watt’s deal, it would be DK Metcalf’s that goes for four more years.

Here is the approximate breakdown of the Steelers salary cap space as of now by my own calculations. The numbers below are strictly the salary cap hit for each player in 2025.

Steelers salary cap space heading into free agency: Approximately $63.69 million

Workout Bonuses: Held until unused is refunded in the fall -$0.9072
Jaylen Warren: $5.346 million fro 2nd round RFA tender; No displacement: -$5.346 million
Larry Ogunjobi: Saves $7 million; No displacement: +$7 million
Malik Harrison: Reported $3.21 million; After displacement: -$2.324329 million
Kenneth Gainwell: Reported $1.79 million; After displacement: -$0.894982 million
DK Metcalf: Reported $11 million; After displacement: -$10.16 million
Ryan McCollum: Reported $1.03 million; After displacement: -$0.07 million
Darius Slay: Reported $10 million; After displacement: -$9.04 million
Brandin Echols: Reported $2.085 million; After displacement: -$1.125 million
Lecitus Smith: Reported $1.03 million; After displacement: -$0.07 million
Mason Rudolph: Reported $3 million; After displacement: -$2.04 million
Juan Thornhill: Reported $3 million; After displacement: -$2.04 million
Daniel Ekuale: Reported $2.8 million; After displacement: -$1.831667 million
Ben Skowronek: Reported $1.71 million; After displacement: -$0.68 million
Scotty Miller: Reported $1.1975 million; After displacement: -$0.1675 million
Isaiahh Loudermilk: Reported $1.3375 million; After displacement: -$0.3075 million
James Pierre: Reported $1.08 million; After displacement: -$0.05 million
Esezi Otomewo: Reported $1.03 million; No in top 51: -$0
Jeremiah Moon: Reported $1.03 million; No in top 51: -$0
Mike Williams: $1.516 million in dead money; No displacement: -$1.516 million
Calvin Anderson: Reported $1.585 million; After displacement: -$0.555 million
Max Scharping: Reported $1.1975 million; After displacement: -$0.1675 million
Montravius Adams: Saves $2.25 million; No displacement: +$2.25 million
Ryan Watts: $0.137013 million in dead money; No displacement: -$0.137013
Robert Woods: Reported $2 million; No displacement: -$2 million
George Pickens: Saves $3.656 million; After displacement: +$2.626 million
Kaleb Johnson: Reported $1.158557 million; After displacement: -$0.109111 million
Jack Sawyer: Reported $1.077733 million; After displacement: -$0.047733 million
Yahya Black: Reported $0.934959 million; No in top 51: -$0
Will Howard: Reported $0.902025 million; No in top 51: -$0
Carson Bruener: Reported $0.874235 million; No in top 51: -$0
Donte Kent: Reported $0.873363 million; No in top 51: -$0
Derrick Harmon: Reported $3.267928 million; After displacement: -$2.216819 million
Trey Sermon: Reported $1.03 million; No in top 51: -$0
Blake Mangelson: Released with $3,000 in dead money: -$0.003 million
Aaron Rodgers: Reported $14.15 million; After displacement: -$13.072267 million

Approximate salary cap space: Approximately $18.8 million

So how does my salary cap number compare to those reported by the major salary cap websites?

According to overthecap.com (OTC), the Steelers are $31,884,912 under the salary cap. Other than not having Rodgers’ contract as of Monday night, we have the exact same number.

Another credible salary cap website is spotrac.com, which has the Steelers at $32,284,802 as of Monday night as they do not have the Aaron Rodgers contract as well as they don’t the same cap number for Mason Rudolph. Other differences here are they do not have the offseason workouts counting against the salary cap. Additionally, Spotrac counts the potential dead money hit for players not in the top 51 even though it does not need to count against the cap at this time until those players are officially released.

While the Steelers are going to need cap space for a number of things this offseason, it doesn’t have to be at this time. The Steelers will need as much as an additional $13 million, but not until September. The expenses in September include when they need to account for all 53 players on the roster (about $1.8 million), sign their practice squad (between $4 million and $4.5 million), and have some carryover in order to do business throughout the year (about $7 million). But even taking these things into effect now, which they do not need to do as there are other moves which could be made to save some cap space such as a T.J. Watt contract extension and/or a Pat Freiermuth restructure, the Steelers still have room in order to acquire more players. The Steelers currently have around $5.8 million above their projected future expenses.

Does something not make sense? Curious about any of the specifics? Leave your questions in the comments below and I will check in and do my best to answer them.